SEO Forecasting: Predict & Plan Organic Growth

This guide details two SEO forecasting methods to predict organic traffic growth: keyword-based and statistical trend analysis. Keyword-based forecasting estimates traffic from specific keywords, considering search volume, ranking position, and click-through rate (CTR). A manual calculation or tools like Semrush can be used; Semrush provides potential traffic, topic traffic, and potential ranking position. Statistical trend analysis, ideal for sites with 16-24 months of data, leverages past performance to project future growth. A provided spreadsheet simplifies this complex method, utilizing linear regression after importing Google Search Console (GSC) data. The spreadsheet allows for conservative and aggressive growth adjustments, enabling scenario planning. Both methods are valuable, with keyword-based forecasting suited for new keywords or topics and trend analysis for established sites. The article stresses the importance of presenting forecasts visually, connecting them to business outcomes like revenue, and being transparent about assumptions. A simple revenue estimation formula (Forecasted Monthly Traffic × Conversion Rate × Revenue per Conversion = Estimated Monthly Revenue) is provided. Maintaining forecast accuracy involves monthly review against actual data, adjusting assumptions based on performance and strategy changes, and recalibrating the model as needed. Examples include Casper's potential traffic from “memory foam mattress” keywords and adjusting forecasts based on content production changes or marketing campaigns. The ultimate goal is to use the forecast to inform content creation, prioritize efforts, and set effective KPIs aligned with business objectives.

(Source: https://backlinko.com/seo-forecasting)